6 pages 15 hours
FIN469 Investment Analysis Deliverable Template Spring 2019
Please solve – and provide the data to substantiate – the following items in your deliverable for your assigned company. This project’s main deliverable should not exceed eight pages, front & back, 12 font, double spaced (although you may include an appendix of any length or form necessary).
1) Download and provide the last five years income statements.
Download and provide the last five years cash flow statements.
Download and provide the last five years balance sheets.
Please include a brief paragraph for each statement that provides the story for each. The story may suggest issues of profitability, cash flow, growth, etc.
For these last five years, importantly, provide the adjustments and/or calculations for the free cash flows needed for the Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model, either has an addition to the income statement or as a separate statement. Highlight this.
2) Highlight the abbreviated forecast of the next five years income statement, explicitly – and only – providing any line items and explanations that are material to your investment story. The only line items I want / need to see are the critical ones to your forecast.
Highlight the abbreviated forecast of the next five years cash flow statement, explicitly – and only – providing any line item explanations that are material to your investment story.
Highlight the abbreviated forecast of the next five-year DCF forecasts (i.e., year by year) and the normalized, constant growth calculation for forecast years 6 to infinity. Again, highlight this.
3) Provide a DCF model based valuation range, explaining in brief, your inputs. This range will serve as an “absolute valuation” metric and will be calculated by discounting your individual five year FCFF forecasts by a realistic WACC, discounting the constant growth by the WACC, subtracting out debt and dividing by shares outstanding. Highlight this absolute valuation range.
4) Provide 10-year price/earnings, price/book, and price/sales charts, commenting on today’s relative valuation AND providing the forecasted P/E, etc. metrics that you selected to use in your forecasts. For example, substantiate your P/E ratio and earnings per share forecast inputs that will provide your P/E valuation. These “relative values” will serve as range value inputs for your final valuation range. Highlight this relative valuation range.
Note: The DCF absolute value range will be combined with the P/metric relative value ranges to form a final range of value. For example, if the DCF suggests $38/share and the P/metrics suggest $34–37, your valuation range – combining the absolute and relative values – would be $34–38/share.
5) Talk about the important “systematic factors” (inflation, interest rates, industrial production, etc.) that you believe will drive this security’s return, explaining why you chose to include the ones that you did. You may wish to supply a simply regression to prove your point (hint)….
6) Discuss the important “fundamentals” (profitability, growth, cash flows, etc.) that you believe will drive this security’s future return, explaining why you chose the ones that you did. Comment also on the “embedded expectations” that you believe the market is focusing on (please recall that any good analysis is about understanding the embedded expectations in the market price and how those expectations change so as to drive a higher or lower price).
7) Given your analysis, would you recommend a buy or a sell on this equity security? Explain your recommendation in a “summary paragraph” that you would provide as an executive summary with your employer. Highlight this in a single paragraph, seeking to make sure it is an accurate and complete storyline of your analysis.
8) Provide the duration, convexity, and yield to maturity of any fixed income instrument of this company that matures after 2025.
9) Provide the Black-Scholes valuation of any option of this company that expires within the next 12 months (please be sure to provide your inputs as well as a brief discussion of your volatility assumptions). Briefly compare your valuation (V) to that last price (P) traded in the market.
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